Getting Started
Everything you need to know to use FirstDown effectively.
How FirstDown Works
FirstDown uses MWave, our proprietary prediction engine, to analyze every game across NBA, NFL, and MLB. For each game, MWave computes a win probability and compares it against the odds offered by major sportsbooks. When the model disagrees with the market, that’s an edge.
Not every edge is worth betting on. FirstDown classifies each pick by how large the disagreement is:
Confidence Tiers
MAX
Our highest conviction plays. These picks have the largest model edges and represent FirstDown’s best-of-the-best. They don’t appear every day, but when they do, they carry the most conviction.
Strong
High conviction. The model sees significant disagreement with the market. These picks have verified profitable track records across multiple seasons.
Edge
Moderate disagreement. The model sees value but with less conviction than Strong. Positive expected value but thinner margins.
Lean
Small disagreement. The model has a slight lean but the edge is minimal. Informational — shows where FirstDown sees a marginal advantage.
Reading a Pick Card
Each pick card on the Daily Slate shows:
- •Teams — the matchup
- •Market — moneyline, spread, or player prop
- •Tier badge — Strong (green), Edge (gold), Lean (gray)
- •MWave probability — what the model thinks the true probability is
- •Market probability — what the sportsbook odds imply
- •Edge percentage — the gap between FirstDown and the market
- •Pick — which side to bet and at what odds
- •Best line — which sportsbook has the best price
How to Place a Bet
FirstDown does not accept or place bets. We are an informational platform. To act on FirstDown’s picks:
- 1.Open your sportsbook app (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, etc.)
- 2.Find the game FirstDown recommended
- 3.Check that the odds are still close to what FirstDown showed — lines move throughout the day
- 4.Place your bet at the recommended book if possible, or at whichever book you have access to
Important
Always verify the current odds before betting. The odds FirstDown displays may not be the most current odds if they shift very quickly.
Bankroll Management
We recommend flat unit betting — the same dollar amount on every pick. This is the simplest and safest approach.
Recommended unit size: 1–2% of your total bankroll
If your bankroll is $1,000:
1 unit = $10–$20
Bet $10–$20 on each Strong pick
Same amount on every bet, win or lose
Don’t chase losses. A bad night doesn’t mean the model is broken. FirstDown’s edge plays out over hundreds of picks, not individual nights. Stay disciplined and trust the process.
Player Props
FirstDown also offers player prop picks — bets on individual player performance (points, rebounds, three-pointers, pitcher strikeouts).
Props are displayed on the Props tab within the daily slate. Each prop pick shows the player name, the prop line, direction (over or under), model probability vs market probability, edge percentage, and best line.
Track Record
Visit the Track Record page to see FirstDown’s full performance history. You can view ROI by sport and market, browse the cumulative profit chart, use the calendar to check any specific date, and see every pick with its result.
Every pick that contributes to the track record is browsable and verifiable. No hidden losses, no cherry-picking.
Tips for New Users
Start with Strong picks only. Filter the slate to Strong tier and follow those. That’s where the verified edge is.
Use flat units. Don’t size up on “feel” or because you’re confident in a particular game.
Check the best line. FirstDown tells you which book has the best price. Even a few cents difference compounds over hundreds of bets.
Be patient. The model wins over hundreds of picks, not individual nights. A 3–5 losing streak is normal and expected.
Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose. Sports betting involves risk. FirstDown identifies edges but doesn’t guarantee wins.
Questions?
Email: support@firstdown.pro
Ready to see today’s picks?
Go to Slate